Climate is a major cause of conflict in Africa, says the BBC in this report.

The article is worth reading in full, but here are the three statements that stood out in terms of their implications for peacebuilding work across the continent.

1. "Warm years increased the likelihood of conflict by about 50% - and food seems to be the reason why."

Here, in one sentence, we are pointed to a possible empirical link between the warming of the planet, food security, and conflict. Many of us have been saying this all along but for the first time we might have the data to get policy attention. And that's not even counting the enormous amount of investment and effort that will have to go into adaptation and mitigation work, both of which social entrepreneurs will be critical for.

2. "We were very surprised to find that when you put things like economic growth and better governance into the mix, the temperature effect remains strong".

Perhaps discouraging, but still an important warning to heed. Growth and governance are vital but not enough. We will need a bottom-up social cohesiveness in order to withstand the challenges of a warming planet. We need community-embedded leaders to build the models and mechanisms for tolerance and empathy that will be necessary to facing this challenge.

A recent conference organized by the Conflict Research Society and The Conflict Analysis Research Centre and hosted by the University of Kent in the UK (Conflict and Complexity, II: Theory, Evidence and Practice, 7th - 9th September 2009 highlighted the importance that both academicians and practitioners put on the application of complex science in modern conflicts. Taking a look at today’s major political conflicts one easily discovers that they are usually convoluted, long-standing and intractable. In fact, a recent study presented at the conference argues that we must think about today’s conflicts and wars in a completely new way and “modern war” and conflict seems indeed to be a valid category for analysis.

As a continuation to yesterday's post “What does peacebuilding look like in an interconnected world?”, I wanted to point to an interesting document titled Systems Theory and Peacebuilding compiled by Lisa Schirch from the Center for Justice & Peacebuilding at Eastern Mennonite University. In the brief Schirch highlights seven aspects of a 'system' and the implications each has for peacebuilding. We've outlined them below and are interested in hearing about people or organizations putting these ideas into action.

1. Each part of a system can only be understood in relationship with every other part.

Implication for Peacebuilding: Conflict assessment processes should map the system of conflict, all of its stakeholders, its history and how a conflict at the local level is “nested” within larger conflicts.

2. In systems, there are multiple causes that contribute to effects.

Ashoka Peace aims to present a broad understanding of innovation within peace building, which means it will naturally bridge varying fields of work and disciplines. For instance, take the intersection between two seemingly different bodies of knowledge: peacebuilding and mathematics. What is the relation?

Sean Gourley is using his training in physics to analyze data about modern war and conflict. By using raw data from conflicts in Iraq, Colombia, Afghanistan, Senegal and others, Gourley and his team claim to have found a surprisingly strong mathematical relationship linking the fatality and frequency of attacks. Take a look at the following TED talk of Sean Gourley on "The mathematics of war":