Over the weekend there was a plethora of news stories, blogs and commentary about the ever-evolving political situation in Guinea.

Summary: a year ago Guinea’s President Lansana Conte died and within hours a group within the military suspended constitutional law. Initially people were hopeful as Captain Moussa “Dadis” Camara took power and promised reform. Yet, delayed elections, ambiguous political intentions and a deadly massacre - in which 60-160 civilians were killed, hundreds more were injured, and women were raped and kidnapped in broad daylight by men in military uniform - has seriously eroded hope in Guinea.

A recurring theme in the many of the commenting voices online was one of speculation: Could the No.2 man in Guinea become the next leader as Captain Camara lay recovering in a hospital from a shot to the head? Could West Africa survive widespread violence in Guinea? Would a peacebuilding force be necessary?  Are the factions within the Guinean military going to tear the country apart?

Amidst all the proposed solutions, suggestions and analyses, there was one lone voice asking what could have been done to avoid this situation. Prevention is a surprisingly neglected topic, especially when nearly all of us agree that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

At some point in the future a scholar will examine at what is now the present and will analyze this time in Guinea’s history. How widespread violence in Guinea could have prevented will probably not receive much analysis. This is a pity. We at the BEFORE Project believe that there is still hope for Guinea – and for places around the world that have the potential of becoming like Guinea. It is up to us all to analyze the present for insights into both the future and past. We all need to put more resources and attention on political violence prevention. It’s no light speculation to say that all of our futures could be drastically different if we did.